Strategic foresight, amid rising uncertainties, is a future-thinking approach extending beyond traditional planning to explore long-term scenarios. It promotes organizational agility, stakeholder alignment, and proactive strategy formation to navigate potential future challenges. Engaging in foresight exercises every 3 to 5 years can provide fresh insights and recalibrate strategies in alignment with evolving external factors. Through a structured three-step process it supports organizations to better prepare for, align and navigate that future
What is strategic foresight ?
Uncertainty has increased . In the last 5 years we have experienced economic downturn, technology revolutions, Covid, unthought wars etc… Organisations need to reflect on impacts of trends in the distant future.
Strategic foresight is about :
• “Future Thinking” approach: Strategic foresight is a systematic approach that extends beyond traditional strategic planning horizons to explore potential future scenarios (minimum be at a 5 year timeframe but more ideally at least 10 years). This approach supports resilient organizational futures by anticipating changes and preparing for various possibilities.
• Complement to strategy: It works hand-in-hand with strategic planning to navigate towards future organizational success. While strategic planning often deals with near-term goals and operational planning, strategic foresight focuses on long-term possibilities and uncertainties.
• Broad applicability: The methodology can be applied across a wide range of organizational contexts (organisational or divisional level), aiding in clarifying and navigating complex and uncertain environments. Its principles are adaptable to different organizational needs and sectors.
• Exploration before Implementation: Strategic foresight emphasizes exploring the future to understand its implications for the present. This exploration challenges existing mental models and perspectives, aiding in more robust decision-making.
• Collective intelligence and practical application: It fosters collective intelligence by engaging diverse stakeholders in foresight exercises. This isn't merely an academic exercise but a practical tool that challenges organizational thinking and aids in building a proactive strategy for future success.
What are the benefits of a strategic foresight
• Enhancing Agility: Acknowledging that the future is unpredictable, organizations must bolster their agility. Strategic foresight aids in aligning stakeholders on the necessity of change, preparing organizations to adeptly respond to future scenarios.
• Stakeholder Alignment: Achieving a shared understanding among leadership, board of directors, and potentially customers is crucial. This alignment, fostered through strategic foresight, lays the groundwork for a holistic approach towards navigating future uncertainties.
• Mitigation and Reinforcement: Post alignment, the pathway to implementation becomes apparent, enabling organizations to proactively plan strategies to mitigate negative impacts and reinforce positive ones, fostering a resilient organizational structure ready for future challenges.
It is not for me, my organisation !
Agree when you’re able to predict the (distant) future and have alignment within the organisation on that future.
However , in various settings, both within large and smaller organizations, I have found that engaging in such foresight exercises has been enlightening, providing fresh insights and broadening the perspectives of the participants. The duration and depth of a foresight exercise can vary significantly; it can be conducted in a single workshop spanning a few hours, or across multiple workshops with extensive preparation, contingent on the objectives and the depth desired for the exercise. While it's not imperative to conduct these exercises frequently, a periodic review every 3 to 5 years can be beneficial in recalibrating strategies and ensuring alignment with evolving external factors.
How do you start with it?
Strategic foresight in action in 3 steps
Step 1 : definition of the scenario’s
In envisioning scenarios for potential outcomes over the next 10 years, it's important to consider a variety of angles encompassing competition, technological advancements, societal shifts, behavioral trends, and evolving user needs. While not every scenario will embody all these dimensions, each scenario could be analyzed from these perspectives to derive a holistic understanding. The scenarios should be documented and shared among all participants to ensure a common awareness and comprehension.
Step 2 : Discuss and vote ?
Through this lens, the scenarios will unravel diverse potential futures, each shedding light on how these factors may interact and impact the market dynamics and organizational strategies. The collective exploration and understanding of these scenarios from multiple angles will provide a robust foundation for the vote. There is no right or wrong.
Votes should be done on 2 dimensions : what is the likelihood and what is the impact if the scenario materialises. A 2x2 matrix could be derived from the answers. Do also assure that the variance is collected in the answers. A big spread can signal misalignment.
Based on this outcome a similar vote can be done to identify the organisational readiness should the scenario materialise. It is often an eye opener.
Step 3 : find a common theme
Utilizing the 2X2 matrix to identify capability gaps can foster a meaningful discussion aimed at aligning on a common theme to either mitigate potential negative impacts or stimulate positive outcomes. When particular scenario’s emerges from this analysis and is found to be aligned with the current organizational strategy—encompassing the vision, mission, and values—it indeed is a favourable circumstance.
However, from my experience, it's often the case that some degree of tweaking and realignment is necessary to ensure that the strategy remains robust and relevant in the face of evolving scenarios. These adjustments are crucial for ensuring that the strategy is not only attuned to the current realities but is also ready to capitalize on potential future opportunities. The process underscores the dynamic nature of strategic planning and the importance of adaptability and continuous refinement in navigating the complexities and uncertainties that lie ahead.
Have fun and do once a strategic foresight with your team and stakeholders. Do share your experience!
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